Stackling

Thinking Clearly

How to judge a claim, read a number and make a call when you can't be sure. Not about code.

2 tracks · 64 lessons

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What you'll be able to do

  • Judge a claim by its evidence and by who is telling you.
  • Read a number with base rates, risk and sample size in mind.
  • Make a call when you cannot be sure, and change your mind when you should.

  1. What clear thinking is

    Claims, kinds of evidence, who is telling you, what "probably" means, and when to trust a gut feeling.

    28 lessons

    1. What a claim is4 lessons
    2. Kinds of evidence5 lessons
    3. Who is telling you5 lessons
    4. Living with probably4 lessons
    5. When to trust a gut feeling5 lessons
    6. Changing your mind5 lessons

  2. Numbers

    Base rates, risk, averages, samples, significance, charts and estimates, in counts you can do in your head.

    36 lessons

    1. The test came back positive5 lessons
    2. Updating in plain words5 lessons
    3. Averages and spread4 lessons
    4. Doubles your risk of what4 lessons
    5. Small samples lie5 lessons
    6. What significant means5 lessons
    7. Reading a chart4 lessons
    8. Estimating4 lessons

Five minutes today is a first step.

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